Showing posts with label game theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label game theory. Show all posts

Thursday, August 30, 2007

How Does UT Stop the Cal Passing Attack?

One of the most talked about matchups of this Saturday's game is the Cal passing game against a young, talented secondary of Tennessee. A lot of fans have asked how UT plans on covering Jackson. I'll tell you this right now - Tennessee will do just fine covering DeSean Jackson, but I'm worried about Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan, who will have far more favorable matchups than Jackson.

So how does Tennessee attempt to slow it down? Here's a diagram I created, with a good bit of explanation after.




This is Cal's base passing personnel against Tennessee's base 4-3. I actually believe we'll see Tennessee play more Nickel than normal, but still, our bread and butter is the 4-3, with athletic linebackers who can blitz or drop into coverage.

First, let me break down the personnel for each team.

On the field for Cal is DeSean Jackson at the X, Lavelle Hawkins (705 yards) at the Y, and Robert Jordan (571 yards) at the Z, or slot. Nate Longshore (QB) in the shotgun with RB, Justin Forsett. Craig Stevens, who, regardless of his KO last season on the opening kickoff, is a good receiving tight end, on the same side as Jackson.

For Tennessee, I have Berry in, not Gaines, but I believe Berry takes the main snaps. Marsalous Johnson will be the RCB, who draws the X in Jackson. You know the rest of the guys out there.

In this diagram, the main thing to notice is the defense is in a Cover 2, but not a true Cover 2. I fully expect Johnson to take a short zone, with safety Jarrod Parrish take a high zone, which creates what's called a bracket coverage on DeSean Jackson. This attempts to keep Jackson, and the play, in front of them. These 2 will be responsible for everything DeSean Jackson does.

On the other side of the field, you have a more true Cover 2 aspect. Berry or Gaines will be the LCB, drawing, usually, both the Y and Z receivers. Over the top, Hefney is playing a zone coverage, deep. SLB Ryan Karl should drop into coverage, as well as MLB Jerod Mayo. They'll be responsible for Robert Jordan and/or Craig Stevens and/or Justin Forsett. WLB Rico McCoy could also drop into coverage, but I believe John Chavis will elect to send at least 1 LB, if not more. In this example, McCoy blitzes off the egde, which brings a 5 man rush.

This is where Craig Stevens must take advantage. However, against a team like Tennessee, where the linebackers are very fast for their position, Stevens may not have an advantage. So, Tennessee might blitz Mayo instead, and zoning Stevens' area with McCoy.

What are the weaknesses for this type of coverage? The main thing is dedicating two players to cover one. This creates mismatches at other places. I imagine Cal might notice the bracket coverage on Jackson, and send Stevens on a route to the outside. If Marsalous Johnson jumps it, then you have Jackson versus Parrish or Nevin McKenzie.

Another problem arises, too. Cal's three wide receivers know the job for each position, and can be moved around freely. Jackson could line up in the slot, where he becomes a receiver running a route in Ryan Karl's area or Jon Hefney's area. One thing is for sure - John Chavis has had great success in the past in shutting down a star receiver. Minus Marcus Monk, there haven't been many star receivers who have killed Tennessee. Peter Warrick in 1998 is a perfect example.

Lastly, the most important key to this coverage is that Johnson, Berry, and Gaines need to jam the receivers at the line to immediately corrupt the timing of Nate Longshore and his triumvirate of receivers. Is this something the Tennessee corners can do? Absolutely. Look at the size of the Cal receivers and the UT CBs.

WR DeSean Jackson - 6'0", 166
WR Robert Jordan - 5'11", 165
WR Lavelle Hawkins - 6'2", 181

CB Marsalous Johnson - 5'9", 180
CB Antonio Gaines - 5'9", 180
CB Eric Berry - 6'0", 200
CB DeAngelo Willingham - 6'0", 195

So, while Johnson and Gaines give up a couple of inches, they have 15 pounds on Jackson and Jordan. All 4 of UT's listed CBs above run a 4.4 or better. While Cal has the advantage on paper, I think the combination of athleticism at the position and a Chavis gameplan can slow down the Cal passing game.

We'll find out in ohhhhhhh 44 hours.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Game Theory: UT and the No Huddle

There has been much to do about some comments the coaching staff made back in the spring about going to a no-huddle offense for the 2007 season. Originally, the coaches said they'd experiment with it, but through fall practice, it's clear the boys want to run it almost exclusively. Trooper Taylor even went as far to say that they'll use it from the first snap to the last snap. I've always been on the side of fans that needs to "see it to believe it," because a Phil Fulmer staff has never been one to do something like this. What will the no-huddle bring for the offense?

First, what you have to remember is that Tennessee is not converting to a Hurry Up No Huddle offense. It's just the No Huddle, though it could be hurried up, or slowed down, or right in the middle of those two paces. That's part of the theory of why it works. The offense controls the pace 100% of the time. It doesn't mean the defense will see the field more, because Ainge can and will come to the line, assess the defense, most likely look to the sideline for a few signals, and work the play clock down to the last seconds. It's what the Colts do with our golden boy, Peyton Manning. I'm sure if we approach the line, we can have a quick cadence and snap it early, as to keep the defense from finding a snap count rhythm.

Some of this stuff might be obvious, but there could be some Tennessee fans out there who might not know much about the pros and cons of the No Huddle offense. There could also be opposing fans who want to know more about why Tennessee is trying this junk. Anyway, with my super mad skills with the AS Football Play Editor and GIMP, I made a couple examples for you all.

PLAY 1: 3rd and 2


As you can see, I was a bit liberal with the personnel on the field. O'Neal and Vinson probably won't see the field together very much, unless Vinson comes on over the next 3 weeks. However, this would be something Cutcliffe could call on 3rd and 2. This is your typical pulling guard run play. Obviously LaMarcus Coker won't be the running back, unless he gets his crap together. Coker's absence has a huge impact on the No Huddle, but that's for another time. Anyway, McClendon or Foster or Scott, whoever is the right guard, for this play, will pull to the left side and act as a lead blocker for the running back. With the right performance, Tennessee gets the 2 yards to continue the drive. The defense, after 3 downs (if this is the first 1st down of the drive) will be a bit tired. We don't huddle, and run something like this.

PLAY 2: 1st and 10

Tennessee is able to, with the same personnel, go from a power run game to a speed passing game without huddling. The defense, which I now realize I should have added into the diagrams, will still have personnel for their 4-3, 3-4, 5-2, whatever run defense set they use, and will be a bit tired. You slide Coker to the slot (again, not anymore, so Foster or Hardesty), you move Cottam from TE to the slot. Now you have a huge advantage. I have Cottom running a seam route to get matched up against a smaller safety. Cottom is 6'8" 240ish and runs a 4.6 40. Our possession type TE, Chris Brown runs a simple 7 yard cross. Coker, now in the slot, runs a 8-9 yard hook, matched up against either a safety or an OLB. Makes me excited for 7 points. O'Neal and Vinson, speed demons, can run almost any routes because they are weirdly secondary here. Vinson could run a quick in, O'Neal a go route. Doesn't matter. Cottom and Coker have the mismatches.

I know these may seem very elementary to some, but for others, this helps, I hope. You could use these 2 plays in reverse, as well. On 3rd and middle-to-long yardage, run the pass play, then after you get the 1st down, run it to the pass-rush-specialist side. It sounds too easy, but there is a lot of timing and knowledge needed at every position to make it work. With an experienced QB, experienced RBs, TEs, and OL, Tennessee has most of the puzzle. Now, we just need some reliable receivers.

If this entry did nothing for you, let me know.