GREAT WIN! Sweet 16 here we come

I wish I had Photoshop, and not GIMP.

#2 Seed in Charlotte

I'm already working in an entry breaking down things about the 3 teams in our most immediate future: American, Butler, and South Alabama. It should come later today.

But for now, there are some things to talk about.

1. I've already noticed tons of Vol fans assuming that because we're the #2 in the overall #1's region means we were considered the worst #2 seed. I'm almost 100% positive that's not the truth. The S-curve is gone, as far as I know, and I believe they tried to give respect to Tennessee by putting us close to home for the quarters and regionals. Sure, playing North Carolina in Charlotte is tough, but we have a better chance of beating the Heels than UCLA or Kansas.

2. I'm disturbed by the potential match ups. Butler was a 5 seed for Lunardi and a 6 seed at Bracketography, yet we somehow get them as a 7 seed, and they are, on paper, one of the worst possible match ups for us. Also, if talented South Alabama upsets Butler, we get to play USA in ratsa fratsa Birmingham. Not very fair, if you ask me. And lastly, of all the 3 seeds, the worst match up for us is Louisville, and of course we get them in our bracket. Their defense would cause us problems if we make it that far. I know no matter what, we are playing tough teams, but the match ups don't favor us.

3. I'm sick and tired of bubble teams whining. Win more games and you won't have to complain. Virginia Tech - beat Richmond, Old Dominion, or Penn State and you're in. Syracuse - don't lose to Rhode Island and Massachusetts at home and you're in. Arizona State - don't get embarrassed by a bad Illinois team in Hawaii, don't lose to Washington and Cal at home, and you're in.

4. Back to Tennessee - when you undoubtedly start to dissect a possible Butler game, please don't put too much weight on 2006-2007's game. It was the fifth career college game for Ramar Smith, Duke Crews, and Wayne Chism, and the first game of their college career outside the state of Tennessee. Also, this one guy, not sure if you've heard of him, Tyler Smith, wasn't on the squad. Lastly, according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics, Butler was better last season than they are this season.

So, those are my first thoughts after the selection announcements. Check back for the comparisons to American, Butler, and South Alabama.

Chomp, Collaborate, and Listen

The Hype is in Full Effect!

Now that our BasketVols have disposed of the bad Tigers, it's officially time for Memphis. Granted, the hype began when Tyler Smith was allowed to join the UT team immediately after his transfer decision. That day was when Tennessee jumped from Sweet 16 contender, to possible Final Four contender, alongside the Memphis Tigers.

Basically, since October, this has been the biggest game on our schedule, and the biggest game for ESPN since the last Tobacco Road game.

But is this game as big as a $10,000 ticket would make you think? Not to be Debbie Downer, but no. Is this the biggest regular season game this season for college basketball? Probably. Is this the biggest regular season game in UT history? I believe so. But it's not bigger than our 1st round game in the NCAA Tournament. It would be easy to say it is, but really, if we beat Memphis on Saturday, then 3 weeks from now lose to Stephen F. Austin, you'd more pissed than Big Red after he didn't get the ol' "you're going to Hollywood" line.


Don't get me wrong - my snack and drink line-up for this game is challenging my menu for the Super Bowl 3 weeks ago. I'm more pumped about this game than any basketball game ever, outside of the Sweet 16 game we won't talk about. However, let's all keep in mind that we shouldn't grab a chair and noose if we lose. We can lose this game, and still march in March to the Final Four. We can win this game, and not make it out of the first weekend. Keep it in perspective.

Tomorrow, I'll go in depth with some interesting stats from Ken Pomeroy's site.

And yes, the American Idol clip from above was a way for me to give an excuse to show this amazing Idol clip, which made me laugh so hard, a little pee came out.

WWP.DD? or Philip Jurick Commits to UT

Rivals has confirmed that 6'10" center Philip Jurick out of Chattanooga has committed to Tennessee for the 2008 class. According to Rivals, his rebounding is already outstanding, which is something Tennessee has drastically needed under Bruce Pearl. His shooting and post moves need work, but he has a year before he even arrives in Knoxville, so he should improve.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa

Can we hook Philip up with some Proactiv or something? Yowza! No offense to the kid, but they have products out there that can help you with that. Just ask P. Diddy.

Lofton Staying Put!

ESPN.com's Andy Katz just reported that Chris Lofton will not declare for the NBA Draft and will return to Tennessee for his senior season. Rejoice, o' Vol brethren, for Money will be at the Summitt this winter. The article also said:

"Tennessee junior guard Chris Lofton was evaluated by the NBA's draft advisory committee as a middle second-round pick and as a result he won't declare for the NBA draft."

Lofton's decision now makes Tennessee not only the SEC favorite, in my mind, but also a legitimate Final Four team, and I'm sure Coach Pearl agrees. Lofton will primarily play the 2, but will occasionally play the 1 to accomplish two things: spell Ramar Smith and improve draft stock.

Yes, we get one last year of this:

Tyler Smith Headed to Tennessee

On Friday, the Tennessean confirmed that Hawkeye star Tyler Smith, from Giles County, Tennessee, was granted a release from Iowa. Here are some excerpts from that Tennessean article:

"Former Giles County High star Tyler Smith has been granted a release from Iowa and plans to transfer, possibly to Tennessee.

Iowa athletic department officials issued a statement today saying that Smith was transferring to be closer to his father, Billy, who’s battling cancer.

Tyler Smith, a 6-7 forward, has told several people close to him that he has a strong interest in Tennessee and hopes to win a hardship appeal from the NCAA that would allow him to play right away next season without having to sit out a year. The institution that Smith transfers to would have to file that appeal."

"Smith was a third-team, All-Big Ten selection last season for the Hawkeyes. He started 29 of 31 games, leading the team in rebounding (4.9) and steals (45) while ranking second in scoring (14.9) and assists (111). He also was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman team and will have three years of eligibility remaining."

Tyler Smith was originally recruited by former Volunteer coach Buzz Peterson, but when Bruce Pearl was hired, the recruitment fell through. Coach Pearl asked Tyler and his father, Billy, for a meeting, and then he would release Tyler from his LOI. However, Billy Smith would not allow the meeting to happen, so Tyler had to sit out a year before starting his career at Iowa this past season.

Is there a risk in all of this? Absolutely, but let's look at it logically. Tyler Smith's father is seriously ill right now with cancer, and Tyler Smith has had two years of maturity under his belt. Coach Pearl has never been one to put his team in a bad place just to land a good player. From what I can tell, Coach Pearl and Tyler Smith are both dedicated to making this happen, and on the court, Tyler Smith will take Tennessee to the next level.

Before I go further, let me explain that most reports are coming out that Smith was granted a release and that Smith wants to come to Tennessee. From my sources, Coach Pearl will accept Smith into the program, and the only hurdle will be the medical hardship, which Smith will win. So, what am I saying? I'm saying Tyler Smith will be a Tennessee Volunteer in 2007.

Imagine the possibilities on the court. Of course, recruit Brian Williams, senior Jordan Howell, Josh Tabb, and J.P. Prince are going to have to work very, very hard to find quality minutes. Look at the potential depth:

1 - Ramar Smith
2 - Chris Lofton
3 - Jujuan Smith
4 - Tyler Smith
5 - Wayne Chism
Bench - Duke Crews
Bench - Ryan Childress
Bench - Cameron Tatum
Bench - Josh Tabb
Bench - J.P. Prince
Bench - Jordan Howell
Bench - Brian Williams

I know Coach Pearl wants to go 10 deep, but 11 or 12 deep? Is that even possible? I'll have to ask him how he plans on making 12 guys happy. One thing is for sure: Tyler Smith will start and he'll have a huge impact. He averaged 14.9 points per game, and if you look a little deeper, it wasn't just against the weaker opponents. Against NCAA tournament teams and SEC teams, Smith averaged 14 points. Combine that output with Tennessee's high octane offense, and Tennessee could lead the nation in scoring. A Final Four is a legitimate goal for this team. To wrap this up, here's a short video of exactly what Tyler Smith will bring to Rocky Top:

Inside the Last Game

Ken Pomeroy has released what he calls an HD Boxscore for the January meeting between Tennessee and Ohio State. I tried to get it here, but my HTML table skills are lacking at the moment. The HD Boxscore can be found here.

Some interesting things to note:

1. Greg Oden had the biggest impact for Ohio State, as they were +10 when he was on the floor. Subsequently, they were -8 for the 4:03 he was on the bench.

2. David Lighty, Othello Hunter, and Matt Terwilliger combined were the sole reason Tennessee was able to keep the game close. They averaged -9.33 per player.

3. The only 3 players who had a positive +/- for Tennessee were Dane Bradshaw, Josh Tabb, and Wayne Chism. Chris Lofton's +/- was -6, Jujuan Smith's -4, and Ramar Smith at a -7. This actually bodes well for the Vols - I find it hard to believe those 3 play so poorly again. The defensive effort as of late for Tennessee has been it's best since Pearl arrived.

Will Thad Matta give Lighty, Hunter, and Terwilliger as many minutes as the game in January? If Tennessee conforms to Ohio State's slow pace, they might not. However, if Tennessee forces their tempo, those 3 will need to see the floor, as the top 6 on the depth chart will be puffed. Tempo will dictate this game's outcome more than anything. The second important facet will be the Ohio State defensive scheme, which will create the 3rd important aspect - Tennessee's 3 point shooting.

If Tennessee is able to get some open looks against the zone, they need to hit them. The zone defense allows for more 3 point looks, so this game could end up a blowout for either team. If Tennessee is hitting their 3s, Matta will either switch it up to man or Tennessee will win by 12+. If Tennessee is cold, Matta can just sit back and let the Vols brick their shots, let Oden pound the glass, and win by 12+.

The interesting strategy will happen when UT starts to hit some shots from behind the arc. Will Matta switch to man, allowing Pearl to bring Chism/Childress out to the perimeter, bringing Oden with them? This will allow for some serious backdoor cuts for Tennessee - remember the Florida game in Knoxville?

I just have a feeling - just a feeling - that Tennessee wins this game and we go where no man has gone before. Well, I mean, men have gone there, but none from Tennessee! THE REGIONAL FINALS!

As Sweet as a Tootsie Roll

I was refraining from posting anything at all about the success of the Tennessee basketball program until the team reached a point that I called the "choke point." What was my standard? Reach the Sweet 16. The last time Tennessee advanced to the Sweet 16 was the 1999-2000 season under much-maligned Jerry Green. Every Volunteer fan would have been happy under the circumstances, but for those who know little about Tennessee basketball, I would like to explain why we all were hacked off.

First, in our last Sweet 16 appearance, we were leading 8th seeded North Carolina (yes, when they had Bill Guthridge) by 7 points with 4:48 to play, and Brendan Haywood had been on the bench since the 8 minute mark, meaning Tennessee had this game in their control. That was, until North Carolina took off on a 15-3 run to end the game, and to end Tennessee's season. In fact, Tennessee didn't hit a single FG for over 7 minutes, breaking the drought with 13 seconds left. The game was a premonition - a sign of what was to come. The next season, Jerry Green led our Volunteers to another pretty record, and another first round defeat. Here are the tournament accomplishments of Tennessee under Jerry Green:

1997-1998: 8 seed, 81-82 loss to 9 seed Illinois State in the 1st Round

1998-1999: 4 seed, 62-52 win over 13 seed Delaware, 51-81 loss to SW Missouri State in the 2nd Round

1999-2000: 4 seed, 63-58 win over 13 seed Louisiana-Lafayette, 65-51 win over 5 seed Connecticut, 69-74 loss to 8 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16

2000-2001: 8 seed, 63-70 loss to 9 seed Charlotte in the 1st round

See, Jerry Green left a lot to be desired in March, and even though we were pretty new to the entire experience, the fans were upset. Jerry also couldn't control his players, and they obviously didn't respect him. In a game where Tony Harris was too hurt to play and thus sat in street clothes on the bench, a scuffle broke out near the opposing team's bench. Tony Harris sprints the length of the court to get into the action - it wasn't pretty. He was fired after the 2000-2001 season.

Next came the Buzz Peterson era, where a nice guy almost didn't finish last. Fans were split - some wanted Buzz to stay, considering how nice of a man he was. Others wanted him gone, and they got their wish after the 2004-2005 season.

Everyone knows the 2005-2006 Tennessee story. And now, here we are, March, 2007. Our Volunteers have reached the Sweet 16 again, and this time, if the Vols lose, it won't cause any anger or pink slips. The general vibe around this basketball program is that whether Ohio State ends our season or if we continue on, our program will be stable. Bruce Pearl has brought not only a winning program to the hardwood, but his attitude is exactly what everyone needed. Sure, if Tennessee landed any other sure-fire mid-major coach, there would be more wins. However, the silly feeling in our bellies and the excitement in our voices wouldn't be a tenth of what they are right now. Bruce Pearl is exactly what this team, this fan base, this program, this university, and this landscape of college basketball needed. It's as sweet as a tootsie roll.

Oh, the game? It should be another classic between the Buckeyes and the Volunteers. For those of you who didn't see it, here's how it ended:

A lot of the Tennessee fan base feels like Tennessee should have won this game in Columbus. After Lewis nailed the dagger, Tennessee missed a shot at the other end, but the Buckeye who rebounded the ball stepped out of bounds with more than 2 seconds left on the clock, but it was uncalled and the buzzer sounded. The stats show that Tennessee didn't play all that well, either, but we still almost pulled it out.

Here is a look at some shooting stats in the Ohio State game compared to their season percentage in parenthesis:

Jujuan Smith: 1-1 2ptFG, 1-8 3PT (45.4%, 36.9%)

Chris Lofton: 7-9 2ptFG, 3-11 3PT (47.8%, 41.7%)

Wayne Chism: 2-3 2ptFG, 1-5 3PT (44.5%, 34.7%)

Tennessee: 5-11 FT (65.4%)

Bare with me here, but let's adjust the points for these averages compared to what they did in January:

J. Smith: 5 points vs. Ohio State (9.76 projected)

C. Lofton: 23 points vs. Ohio State (22.36 projected)

W. Chism: 7 points vs. Ohio State (7.88 projected)

Tennessee: 5 FT points vs. Ohio State (7.19 projected)

If just these 3 players had shot their averages against OSU and the FTs were average, Tennessee would have scored 7.19 more points - and we lost by 2. Obviously, there are so many variables that created these poor shooting numbers, but it's interesting to see.

Lastly, for more good karma for our Volunteers, let me point you into the direction of Ken Pomeroy's Game Plan for Tennessee. If you click on the Eff tab for offense, it will arrange the games in a manner where Tennessee's offense was most efficient descending to the least efficient. As you'll see, Tennessee's 4th worst offensive showing was against Ohio State in January. I firmly believe that if Tennessee plays above average offensively against Ohio State, the Volunteers will win. Granted, one of Tennessee's best defensive performances was against Ohio State, so we'll need our boys to keep that up!

With this being my first real basketball blog, I must apologize for the chaotic format. This experience has been as exciting as almost any football achievement, so understand that during my writing of this blog, I was giddy with excitement. I'm sure with more experience, these basketball blogs will become a little more organized.

Oh, thanks for reading, and speaking of tootsie rolls: