Tennessee Signee Ineligible

As of this writing, Tennessee's JUCO signee, S Nevin McKenzie from Athens Valley Trinity Community College in Texas, has been ruled ineligible due to a recruiting violation during an official visit. Here are some details from govolsxtra.com:

"The recruiting violation involved food and lodging for the recruit's sister Jan. 10-12, according to UT's report, which was obtained through an open-record's request by the News Sentinel. UT became aware of the violation when the SEC notified the school that it had received a report regarding impermissible expenses.

UT reported that it covered those travel expenses for McKenzie's sister, Keisha, because assistant coach Trooper Taylor thought she was the recruit's legal guardian.

In UT's defense, it wrote that McKenzie's sister told Taylor she had acted as Nevin's legal guardian for the past few years when his mother was in prison. She said she had listed her brother as a dependent on her federal tax returns, the report stated. However, when asked if she had been appointed as his legal guardian by a court or state agency, she said she had not, according to UT's report.

UT stated that McKenzie's sister will be required to pay the $188.17 for two nights lodging and three meals to a charity of her choice."

McKenzie is expected to battle for a starting position at safety, and a lot of diehards already have him pencilled in as a starter. He hits people like a mack truck, has perfect size (6'2", 210) and can blaze (4.4 speed).

It sounds like he will be reinstated when his sister pays the $188.17 to charity, so I'm not too terribly worried about McKenzie staying ineligible. If this does end up going the wrong route, then Jarod Parrish (who had 4 scrimmage interceptions this spring) would become the favorite to be the starter on September 1st in Berkeley.

"Yo! Please let dis boy play, son! I'm the next Deon Grant, hustla!"

Steve Spurrier is Tougher than R. Lee Ermey

Steve Spurrier is such a hardass. I mean, really, how do these players stand to play for such a tough-nosed, relentless, disciplinarian? You remember his days at Florida - he was the Alcatraz of college football punishment. Now, he's at it again. From the Associated Press:

"South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia had his suspension for being arrested twice lifted by coach Steve Spurrier."

and

"The freshman was arrested Feb. 17 and charged with drunkenness and failure to stop for a police officer. He was suspended after the incident but then reinstated. He was arrested a second time March 3 on charges of malicious injury to personal property after a professor reported that Garcia had used a key to scratch the man's car."

I'm wetting my pants just looking at you ...

Uh, Stephen? Holding a necklace?

So, Garcia missed all of two months for two crimes. It must be something in the Gainesville water. Once you drink it, you never have a spine ever again. First Spurrier, then Meyer, and now Spurrier again. I wonder if the Ol' Ball Coach called Stephen's mom and told her to come to the principal's office because Stephen was a bad boy and didn't play well with others. "Two laps!" screamed Spurrier. Classy McClasserson.

This guy? Or ...

... this guy? Make your choice.

For Virginia Tech

Clear the way,

so that team from Tech

Can roll to Victory!

No foe can stand the test,

So fight your best,

and we will do the rest.

Strength and speed keep you in the lead;

You'll never go astray.

Our banner high shall ever fly

For victory is ours today.

Ranking SEC Coaches Isn't Hard

On Tuesday, a column (if you can really call it that) at The Sporting News website created a controversy amongst message boarders, and soon, bloggers. Tom Dienhart, a so-called "expert," made this list. Honestly, I'm not really sure where to begin, as it's the single most inaccurate ranking of SEC coaches I've ever seen (and there have been a lot). Is it really that hard to create an accurate, understandable list? Is it really that hard to not look like an idiot after creating such a list? Dienhart was either stoned or is completely devoid of college football knowledge.

A list like this does have some room for discussion, as the acheivements of a lot of these coaches are similiar. What do you need to take into consideration when creating such a list? You need to look at wins/losses, conference titles, national titles (as a bonus, if you will), recruiting, hurdles, longevity, and when two coaches are close in these areas, you look at their head to head record. It really isn't that hard to mess up. The entire body of work needs to be discussed, with some weight on recent achievement. So, here is my list, which I can promise you is more accurate and more agreeable than Dienhart's list:


1. Steve Spurrier - 6 SEC Titles, 1 National Title in 14 SEC seasons
Spurrier has more SEC titles than Urban Meyer, Mark Richt, and Phil Fulmer combined. The lone argument one can make is that Spurrier hasn't had an undefeated season. Guess what? Of the coaches in the SEC right now, only Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville have one. Spurrier brought Florida to where it is now, and Urban Meyer wouldn't have his national title without the foundation Spurrier laid 10 years ago. Spurrier is Florida football, and all those who follow can thank him for the opportunity.


2. Nick Saban - 2 SEC Titles, 1 National Title in 5 SEC seasons
The Liar is a great coach. Imagine if he stayed put in Baton Rouge after the 2004 season - another SEC Title and quite possibly a 2006 National Title run. However, that's hypothetical. The Liar transformed a struggling program into a national power that someone like Les Miles can keep strong. Remember, The Liar took over a 3-8 LSU team in 2000 and won the SEC in 2001. His legend will continue to grow as he takes Alabama to the SEC West crown this season.


3. Urban Meyer - 1 SEC Title, 1 National Title in 2 SEC seasons
Meyer could be #3 or #4, depending on how you weight different parts of the equation. He has less SEC Titles than Richt, but that National Title is what pushes him ahead. Meyer hasn't lost in Gainesville since arriving on campus, but you have to remember a couple things: 1. These weren't his players, and 2. This wasn't his system. Ron Zook left an incredibly stocked cupboard for Meyer to take advantage of. I'm still uncertain if the full-blown spread option will work in the SEC, thus, we need to experience 100% Urbanball before we can move him up. Florida will finish 2nd or 3rd in the SEC East next season, so wait until 2008 before you move him up or down.


4. Mark Richt - 2 SEC Titles in 6 SEC seasons
Richt is another coach on the list who could I shuffle around. 3rd, 4th, or 5th is a reasonable range for him. The 2 SEC Titles put him right there with Saban and Fulmer, and he restored a stagnant Georgia program. Some Dawg fans have mentioned his game management as a weakness, especially in 2006. However, he had a QB shuffle, nay, a QB hoedown all year long, so again, 2008 will speak volumes on his abilities. Could Fulmer be here? Absolutely, except Richt has won 4 of 6 over CPF.


5. Phil Fulmer - 2 SEC Titles, 1 National Title in 14 SEC seasons
Fulmer is the most widely ranked coach. Dienhart had Fulmer at #8, which is ludicrous, and some UT fans have him as #1, which is also ridiculous. Fulmer is easily no worse than 5th in the SEC, and no better than 3rd. He has a combined record of 7-16 against the 4 coaches above him, and hasn't won anything tangible since 1998. A lot of writers put a whole hell of a lot of weight into the last 4-5 seasons, thus Fulmer slides. When you rank the coaches, though, the entire body of work in the SEC does matter, so you can't forget those titles. If Fulmer and Co. somehow manage to win the SEC in 2007, you can guarantee that the sportswriters catapult him into the top 3.


6. Tommy Tuberville - 1 SEC Title in 12 SEC seasons
Ears is consistently the most overrated coach in the conference. His lone SEC Title was in one of the worst SEC seasons in memory. His Tigers are 21-3 in the last 3 SEC seasons, but they were 23-17 with him from 1999-2003. Fans and writers alike act as if Ears has multiple SEC crowns, but in reality he has 1 lousy trophy to hang his hat on. 2007 won't help his cause, either.

Either Friday or Saturday, I will post the bottom six of this list, and also, I will bust the myth that Bobby Johnson is somehow a good coach.

Let's Make a Plea Deal!

I'm a little late in posting this, but Florida is at it again. No no no, not winning titles, but breaking laws. OL Ronnie Wilson was arrested for shooting a semiautomatic rifle into the air. A semiautomatic rifle. Semiautomatic. Rifle. Imagine the thought process leading up to that purchase.

"Hmmm, what dis boy needs? I needs me a safety precaution - you knows, now that I's playin for day Gaytahs. Hows about a rifle? Naws, an OOZI!"

Apparently, TAZ isn't the brightest of young men. This is in direct contrast from his reported Rivals intelligence meters: 3.5 GPA and 960 SAT. Which is it? I think the former, because who in their right mind would wear a hat like that? Ronnie Wilson, that's who.

With this latest arrest, Florida leaps to 3rd in the latest update of the Fulmer Cup at Every Day Should be Saturday. And before anyone starts throwing out cliched remarks like "Those in glass houses shouldn't spit into the wind," because I'm a Tennessee alum, think about this: if the school whose coach inspired the cup isn't in the chase, is it still that coach's cup? Chew on that.

As for punishment from Urban Meyer? Nothing yet. However, you can be sure it will be severe and timely. Probably one of the following:

Stiff penalties coming. Wilson's reason for shooting the gun into the air? He said he wanted to intimidate the guy he was arguing with. Right. Intimidate him. Because being 6'4" and 300+ pounds isn't intimidating enough - he needed to shoot an AUTOMATIC RIFLE to startle the guy.

The Fulmer Cup should be renamed the Meyer Cup.

Inside the Last Game

Ken Pomeroy has released what he calls an HD Boxscore for the January meeting between Tennessee and Ohio State. I tried to get it here, but my HTML table skills are lacking at the moment. The HD Boxscore can be found here.

Some interesting things to note:

1. Greg Oden had the biggest impact for Ohio State, as they were +10 when he was on the floor. Subsequently, they were -8 for the 4:03 he was on the bench.

2. David Lighty, Othello Hunter, and Matt Terwilliger combined were the sole reason Tennessee was able to keep the game close. They averaged -9.33 per player.

3. The only 3 players who had a positive +/- for Tennessee were Dane Bradshaw, Josh Tabb, and Wayne Chism. Chris Lofton's +/- was -6, Jujuan Smith's -4, and Ramar Smith at a -7. This actually bodes well for the Vols - I find it hard to believe those 3 play so poorly again. The defensive effort as of late for Tennessee has been it's best since Pearl arrived.

Will Thad Matta give Lighty, Hunter, and Terwilliger as many minutes as the game in January? If Tennessee conforms to Ohio State's slow pace, they might not. However, if Tennessee forces their tempo, those 3 will need to see the floor, as the top 6 on the depth chart will be puffed. Tempo will dictate this game's outcome more than anything. The second important facet will be the Ohio State defensive scheme, which will create the 3rd important aspect - Tennessee's 3 point shooting.

If Tennessee is able to get some open looks against the zone, they need to hit them. The zone defense allows for more 3 point looks, so this game could end up a blowout for either team. If Tennessee is hitting their 3s, Matta will either switch it up to man or Tennessee will win by 12+. If Tennessee is cold, Matta can just sit back and let the Vols brick their shots, let Oden pound the glass, and win by 12+.

The interesting strategy will happen when UT starts to hit some shots from behind the arc. Will Matta switch to man, allowing Pearl to bring Chism/Childress out to the perimeter, bringing Oden with them? This will allow for some serious backdoor cuts for Tennessee - remember the Florida game in Knoxville?

I just have a feeling - just a feeling - that Tennessee wins this game and we go where no man has gone before. Well, I mean, men have gone there, but none from Tennessee! THE REGIONAL FINALS!

As Sweet as a Tootsie Roll

I was refraining from posting anything at all about the success of the Tennessee basketball program until the team reached a point that I called the "choke point." What was my standard? Reach the Sweet 16. The last time Tennessee advanced to the Sweet 16 was the 1999-2000 season under much-maligned Jerry Green. Every Volunteer fan would have been happy under the circumstances, but for those who know little about Tennessee basketball, I would like to explain why we all were hacked off.

First, in our last Sweet 16 appearance, we were leading 8th seeded North Carolina (yes, when they had Bill Guthridge) by 7 points with 4:48 to play, and Brendan Haywood had been on the bench since the 8 minute mark, meaning Tennessee had this game in their control. That was, until North Carolina took off on a 15-3 run to end the game, and to end Tennessee's season. In fact, Tennessee didn't hit a single FG for over 7 minutes, breaking the drought with 13 seconds left. The game was a premonition - a sign of what was to come. The next season, Jerry Green led our Volunteers to another pretty record, and another first round defeat. Here are the tournament accomplishments of Tennessee under Jerry Green:

1997-1998: 8 seed, 81-82 loss to 9 seed Illinois State in the 1st Round

1998-1999: 4 seed, 62-52 win over 13 seed Delaware, 51-81 loss to SW Missouri State in the 2nd Round

1999-2000: 4 seed, 63-58 win over 13 seed Louisiana-Lafayette, 65-51 win over 5 seed Connecticut, 69-74 loss to 8 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16

2000-2001: 8 seed, 63-70 loss to 9 seed Charlotte in the 1st round

See, Jerry Green left a lot to be desired in March, and even though we were pretty new to the entire experience, the fans were upset. Jerry also couldn't control his players, and they obviously didn't respect him. In a game where Tony Harris was too hurt to play and thus sat in street clothes on the bench, a scuffle broke out near the opposing team's bench. Tony Harris sprints the length of the court to get into the action - it wasn't pretty. He was fired after the 2000-2001 season.

Next came the Buzz Peterson era, where a nice guy almost didn't finish last. Fans were split - some wanted Buzz to stay, considering how nice of a man he was. Others wanted him gone, and they got their wish after the 2004-2005 season.

Everyone knows the 2005-2006 Tennessee story. And now, here we are, March, 2007. Our Volunteers have reached the Sweet 16 again, and this time, if the Vols lose, it won't cause any anger or pink slips. The general vibe around this basketball program is that whether Ohio State ends our season or if we continue on, our program will be stable. Bruce Pearl has brought not only a winning program to the hardwood, but his attitude is exactly what everyone needed. Sure, if Tennessee landed any other sure-fire mid-major coach, there would be more wins. However, the silly feeling in our bellies and the excitement in our voices wouldn't be a tenth of what they are right now. Bruce Pearl is exactly what this team, this fan base, this program, this university, and this landscape of college basketball needed. It's as sweet as a tootsie roll.

Oh, the game? It should be another classic between the Buckeyes and the Volunteers. For those of you who didn't see it, here's how it ended:

A lot of the Tennessee fan base feels like Tennessee should have won this game in Columbus. After Lewis nailed the dagger, Tennessee missed a shot at the other end, but the Buckeye who rebounded the ball stepped out of bounds with more than 2 seconds left on the clock, but it was uncalled and the buzzer sounded. The stats show that Tennessee didn't play all that well, either, but we still almost pulled it out.

Here is a look at some shooting stats in the Ohio State game compared to their season percentage in parenthesis:

Jujuan Smith: 1-1 2ptFG, 1-8 3PT (45.4%, 36.9%)

Chris Lofton: 7-9 2ptFG, 3-11 3PT (47.8%, 41.7%)

Wayne Chism: 2-3 2ptFG, 1-5 3PT (44.5%, 34.7%)

Tennessee: 5-11 FT (65.4%)

Bare with me here, but let's adjust the points for these averages compared to what they did in January:

J. Smith: 5 points vs. Ohio State (9.76 projected)

C. Lofton: 23 points vs. Ohio State (22.36 projected)

W. Chism: 7 points vs. Ohio State (7.88 projected)

Tennessee: 5 FT points vs. Ohio State (7.19 projected)

If just these 3 players had shot their averages against OSU and the FTs were average, Tennessee would have scored 7.19 more points - and we lost by 2. Obviously, there are so many variables that created these poor shooting numbers, but it's interesting to see.

Lastly, for more good karma for our Volunteers, let me point you into the direction of Ken Pomeroy's Game Plan for Tennessee. If you click on the Eff tab for offense, it will arrange the games in a manner where Tennessee's offense was most efficient descending to the least efficient. As you'll see, Tennessee's 4th worst offensive showing was against Ohio State in January. I firmly believe that if Tennessee plays above average offensively against Ohio State, the Volunteers will win. Granted, one of Tennessee's best defensive performances was against Ohio State, so we'll need our boys to keep that up!

With this being my first real basketball blog, I must apologize for the chaotic format. This experience has been as exciting as almost any football achievement, so understand that during my writing of this blog, I was giddy with excitement. I'm sure with more experience, these basketball blogs will become a little more organized.

Oh, thanks for reading, and speaking of tootsie rolls:

APP Breakdown: The SEC

I have finished the SEC analysis for Adjusted Performance Percentage. Keep in mind that a score of 100 means 100%, or that team performed on par with what their opponents allowed. Anything higher means they excelled, but anything lower means they underperformed. We'll start with Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. LSU 116.1
2. Kentucky 113.9
3. Arkansas 111.1
4. Florida 104.0
5. Alabama 103.7
6. Vanderbilt 102.9
7. South Carolina 100.7
8. Georgia 97.9
9. Tennessee 97.5
10. Auburn 91.0
11. Mississippi State 83.8
12. Mississippi 76.1

I think the two biggest surprises we see here are that Alabama was 5th in the conference on offense, while Tennessee was a dismal 9th! A lot of fans point to David Cutcliffe's return as the reason Tennessee went from 5-6 to 9-3, but during SEC play, Tennessee didn't play as well as we all thought.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

Not surprising - Arkansas not only racked up a lot of yards on the ground, but scored a 164.9 for their ROAPP. Wow! Was it due to Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, or the 3 monster offensive linemen who just graduated? We'll find out in 6 months.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

Again, no surprise here. Tennessee's terrible run blocking and inconsistent tailback play created a 64.5 ROAPP, meaning Tennessee performed 35.5% below what their opponents were allowing. Awful.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

Did you see this coming? Surely you had to, as they passed for 2,178 yards in the SEC, but a mere 178 more yards than LSU. What am I getting at? Kentucky scored a 133.7 in POAPP, while LSU and Tennessee scored 118.2 and 118.3, respectively. That's a 15.5% difference! Kentucky's pass offense wasn't just better than everybody else in the SEC, it was miles ahead! Oh, and they return every important skill position player on offense. Go ahead, say they won't make a bowl again.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

The arrival and play of Yaw Yaw Yaw Brent Schaeffaw (Brent Schaeffer for those who don't know Orgeron-ese) was nothing short of a nightmare. Let me put it this way, Tennessee fans: the Rebels' pass offense was WORSE than Tennessee rush offense, if you can believe it. A wretched 63.5POAPP is more than 12% worse than the Razorbacks' score. Ouch.

Next, I did the same analysis for the defenses in the SEC. There are a few changes when you compare it yards allowed. Here is Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. LSU 121.3
2. Florida 112.1
3. Georgia 109.6
4. Alabama 106.1
5. Auburn 104.7
6. Arkansas 103.0
7. Mississippi State 102.7
8. Tennessee 102.4
9. South Carolina 98.9
10. Mississippi 94.9
11. Vanderbilt 90.0
12. Kentucky 72.9

What stands out? Alabama at #4 is the biggest surprise. Tennessee at #8 is actually better than I expected. Not in terms of SEC rank, but in terms ofTDAPP score. They actually performed 2.4% better on defense than what their opponents' offenses were used to. The 4 teams to be in the bottom of bothTOAPP and TDAPP are Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

The Gators had 4 or 5 NFL draft picks on the defensive line in 2006, with 3 future picks at linebacker behind them. Only four teams had better than a 100 score inRDAPP: Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Alabama. Of those 4, the first 3 had amazing RDAPP scores - yes, Miss State was amazing in rush defense (134.9).

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Kentucky couldn't stop anyone who wanted to rush the ball last season. Their RDAPP was 72.1, which means that they not only didn't stuff the run well, but they also played teams with very good running offenses. They'll need to get tougher in the trenches to have a chance in the SEC East.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

The Tigers had studs all across the line last season, the year AFTER they lost 3 starters to the NFL draft. Their passing opponents were all over the board in terms ofPOAPP, so it just goes to show that the Tigers played extremely well when teams had to pass.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

Deja vu? Kentucky's pass defense was a smidgen better than their rush defense, but still horrid. A 73.4 PDAPP is 15% worse than their closest competition for absolutely blowing coverage. Their entire defense was a joke, and without any improvement, they'll finish 6-6 next season. If you gave Kentucky a new defense, say just Ole Miss (94.9TDAPP), Kentucky would have fought Florida for the SEC East Division Title. I'm not joking.

Lastly, I wanted to see who the best overall team in the SEC was, statistically. I added each team's TOAPP with their TDAPP to create Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. LSU 118.7
2. Florida 108.1
3. Arkansas 107.1
4. Alabama 104.9
5. Georgia 103.8
6. Tennessee 100.0
7. South Carolina 99.8
8. Auburn 97.9
9. Vanderbilt 96.5
10. Kentucky 93.4
11. Mississippi State 93.3
12. Mississippi 85.0

Again, how do we use this for preseason predictions? Look at Alabama - 4th best team in the SEC, but they went 6-6. Expect a big jump in wins, especially when you consider their -2 CGVR. Couple that with new head coach Nick Saban and a boatload of returning talent and you've got a potential surprise SEC West Champion. Georgia is another team I expect to win more games next year. They lose a back-up running back to the draft and a few, key defensive players, but the core of both sides of the ball will be back and stacked. These statistics imply that Kentucky should take a step back next season, but they lose little to the draft, so I'm a little confused on their progress right now.

In the end, these stats don't win games, but they can absolutely give us ideas into who we can expect to show up in 2007. As for Tennessee, I expect the same old, same old.

Interesting Stats

Head over to Matt Melton's blog, Statistically Speaking, and check out his discussion on his SDPI statistic, specifically the SEC Rewind. Matt's found a pretty nice tool in terms of performance evaluation, as well as a tool that you can use in your repertoire for preseason predictive measures.

Matt has also helped me on my project, Adjusted Performance Percentage, or APP, and it's many branches. You'll be able to find things like ROAPP, or Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage. Anyway, I have the SEC done, so expect that pretty soon.

APP, ROAPP, POAPP, etc are easy to calculate. You find the average yards allowed rushing (if you decide you want to know the ROAPP) by the 8 teams YOUR team faced in the SEC (adjust it for conferences who play more or less than 8 games). Then, take your school's rushing offense and divide it by the average allowed by the 8 opponents.

For Tennessee, as an example, their 8 SEC opponents allowed an average of 987 yards rushing in the SEC, while Tennessee rushed for 645 yards. 645/987 = 65.3%, or the worst ROAPP in the SEC.

After finishing the SEC portion of the project, I found that these ratings differ very little than if you just ranked every SEC team by the number of yards gained or allowed. It DOES change, however, and in the end, I will be adding the Total Offense APP (TOAPP) and Total Defense APP (TDAPP) to create Complete APP (CAPP). As a preview, Tennessee rates lower than Alabama in CAPP for 2006.

Until next time, here is Phillip Fulmer's Greatest Locker Room Moments Volume 1:

Narrowing the Field

I was doing some quick research on the National Champions of this decade, and I noticed a little bit of a trend for these teams. Obviously, seven national champions isn't the best of sample sizes, but in the current landscape of college football, it's enough for me to mention.

Here is what I found: 6 of the last 7 BCS Champions returned 6 defensive starters and six offensive starters, with one of the six being the quarterback. Ohio State was the lone outlier.

So, who are the the teams who meet this criteria as of spring practice (If your team is listed, and I tabulated incorrectly, let me know)?

Ole Miss
South Carolina
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Purdue
Northwestern
Indiana
Texas A&M
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Kansas
Miami
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Florida State
Boston College
Southern Cal
California
Arizona State
Oregon
UCLA
West Virginia
South Florida
Connecticut
Cincinnati

That's a lot of teams! However, to narrow these teams down to a much more defined list, I found that every single BCS Champion of this decade had 7 or more wins the previous year. From Oklahoma to Florida, they all had at least 7 wins. So, the teams like Indiana and Connecticut will be removed from the list, leaving the pool of teams that will win the National Title as follows:

All logos used from http://www.gnu-bee.com/football/index.shtml; sorry South Florida and Cincinnati - I know you win 7+ games and fit the criteria, but this is much prettier ... and do you REALLY think you have a chance?

To Hold You Over ...

While I continue to work on my next big entry, "The 2007 SEC East is a Five Horse Race," I will leave you with a video of Tennessee's latest verbal commitment, running back Lennon Creer out of Tatum, TX.

He looks like a player, which sounds dumb, but you can just tell ...

This kid could very well be everything you ever want in a back. He's 6'1", and anywhere from 190-202 pounds, depending on whether you trust Scout or Rivals. He is reported on Rivals to run a 4.47 40 yard dash, and a 4.5 on Scout. His running style reminds me of Marshawn Lynch out of Cal. Both run a little too upright, allowing more abuse on every run. Creer breaks tackles, has great vision, especially when he needs to cutback. His speed could be "suspect" but he seems fast enough in his highlights. I think he might push for carries in 2007, and if Montatio Hardesty doesn't mature as we all expect, Creer could be #2. Sadly, the carries for Arian Foster could end up at zero. Creer should be the thunder to LaMarcus Coker's lightning. I haven't been this excited about a stable of UT running backs since Lewis/Henry/Stephens.

2006 CGVRs

Sorry this took so long to get to you loyal readers (reader?). I'm not proficient enough in HTML to make a big table for this, but maybe in the future, it will look better. Anyway, here are the qualifying CGVRs for 2006.

+4 or more:
Wake Forest +5 (11-3)
Maryland +5 (9-4)
Auburn +5 (11-2)
Florida +5 (13-1)
Oregon State +4 (10-4)
Rice +4 (7-6)
Boise State +4 (13-0)
Iowa State +4 (4-8)
Arkansas State +4 (6-6)

+3:
Kansas State +3 (7-6)
Texas Tech +3 (8-5)
Wisconsin +3 (12-1)
Notre Dame +3 (10-3)
Ohio +3 (9-5)
Troy +3 (8-5)

+2:
Boston College +2 (10-3)
Texas A&M +2 (9-4)
LSU +2 (11-2)
Tennessee +2 (9-4)
Georgia +2 (9-4)
Kentucky +2 (8-5)
Ohio State +2 (12-1)
Purdue +2 (8-6)
Rutgers +2 (11-2)
Cincinnati +2 (8-5)
Southern Miss +2 (9-5)
Idaho +2 (4-8)
Louisiana-Lafayette +2 (6-6)

-4 or more:
North Carolina State -5 (3-9)
Memphis -5 (2-10)
Eastern Michigan -5 (1-11)
Florida International -5 (0-12)
Louisiana-Monroe -5 (4-8)
New Mexico State -4 (4-8)
Colorado -4 (2-10)

-3:
Duke -3 (0-12)
Missouri -3 (8-5)
Oklahoma State -3 (7-6)
Vanderbilt -3 (4-8)
Michigan State -3 (4-8)
Illinois -3 (2-10)
Air Force -3 (4-8)
Alabama-Birmingham -3 (3-9)
Miami (OH) -3 (2-10)

-2:
Clemson -2 (8-5)
Florida State -2 (7-6)
Alabama -2 (6-7)
Mississippi State -2 (3-9)
Iowa -2 (6-7)
Minnesota -2 (6-7)
San Diego State -2 (3-9)
UNLV -2 (2-10)
Houston -2 (10-4)
Nevada -2 (8-5)
North Texas -2 (2-10)

Expect the teams listed with positive CGVRs to be unable to improve on their 2006 records, while teams listed with negative CGVRs to be able to improve on theirs.

Close Game Variance Ratio

One of the resources I use is something I call the "Close Game Variance Ratio" or CGVR. It's an idea I picked up from Phil Steele's preseason magazines, and so far, it's been a pretty strong predictive tool.

The way to find a team's CGVR is to take the difference of games won by 8 points or less from the games lost by 8 points or less. For instance, Tennessee in 2006 beat Air Force by 1, Alabama by 3, South Carolina by 7, and Kentucky by 5, giving Tennessee 4 close wins. UT lost to Florida by 1 and LSU by 4, giving UT 2 close losses. Two from four is +2. So, Tennessee's CGVR is +2.

The idea behind the theory is that teams with higher CGVRs were extremely lucky, or, to sound a little more serious, had positive variance. I believe variance tends to balance itself out, usually from year to year, but sometimes longer. Conversely, teams with lower, negative CGVRs will usually get no worse in record. A 4-7 team with a -3 CGVR will probably improve their record the next season, or at the very least, stay at the same level.

The evidence? I still consider my research to be done over a small sample size, but it's looking pretty good so far. I calculated every team's CGVR for every season from 2001-2005, and so far, the outcomes are pretty telling. First, we'll look at teams with high CGVRs:

+4 and up - Has occurred 34 times, with 91% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+3 - Has occurred 24 times, with 75% of the teams having the same or worse record
+2 - Has occurred 49 times, with 71% of the teams having the same or worse record

Solid evidence. Now, for negative CGVRs:

-4 and worse - Has occurred 22 times, with 86% of the teams having the same or better record
-3 - Has occurred 37 times, with 68% of the teams having the same or better record
-2 - Has occurred 50 times, with 71% of the teams having the same or better record

As far as I can tell, this theory can continually be a solid resource in preseason predictions. Obviously, preseason predictions are about as common as the sniffles, but it's still fun to be right. If you used this resource before the 2006 season, you could have predicted Arkansas's improvement (-4 in 2005), Alabama's and Penn State's record drop (both +2 in 2005), Oregon's troubles (+3), Arizona's 3 win jump (-4), and other teams' fortunes.

Later this week, I will outline which teams from 2007 fall into the important CGVR ranges.

Boise Arrives!

"Boise State doesn't deserve to be in the BCS!"

"Oklahoma is going to pound Boise."

"Boise will get killed."

All of the above phrases could have been heard around bars, offices, homes, and everywhere else over the course of the holidays. There was no way Boise could hang with a BCS conference powerhouse school like Oklahoma. No way, no how. Well, they did.

Not only did the Broncos of Boise hang with Bob Stoops and the 11-1 Sooners (don't correct me), the Broncos BEAT Bob Stoops, Paul Thompson, ADRIAN PETERSON, and the pressure of playing for all mid-major football programs in the country. What will people say now?

"Boise got lucky!"

"Oklahoma overlooked them!"

Those people will be wrong. Oklahoma had 406 total yards to Boise State's 378. Ian Johnson ran for more total yards and yards per carry than 2007 1st Round Draft Pick Adrian Peterson. Even after Oklahoma put the dagger into the hearts of all of Boise, the Broncos pulled the dagger out, licked the blood off the blade, and stuck it into Norman. Boise State beat the Oklahoma Sooners, no excuses.

Will a mid-major ever play for a national title in the current BCS system? I doubt it. The conference strength of schedule just isn't there, and it won't be for awhile. However, the Broncos cooked the crow the best way they knew how, and served it to about 99% of the football fan community. "Well done," was my request.

Oh, and Ian Johnson became engaged in the postgame interview.

1st Annual Tongue Twisters Awards!

The Power T's First Annual Tongue Twister Awards!

First, here are the runners-up for the awards. Read all of them aloud for a good time:

Karibi Dede - LB, Auburn

Sam Olajubutu - LB, Arkansas

Kenny Iwebema - DE, Iowa

Ucha Nwaneri - OG, Purdue

Mike Gyetvai - OT, Michigan State

Jack Ikegwvono - CB, Wisconsin

Yemi Babalola - OT, Texas A&M

Ngamuong Suh - DT, Nebraska

Brad Ekwerekwu - WR, Missouri

Xzavie Jackson - DE, Missouri

Vince Oghobaase - DT, Duke

Michael Tauiliili - LB, Duke

Gosder Cherilus - OT, Boston College

Phillip Mbakogu - DE, Cal

Abu Ma'Afala - DE, Cal

Nu'u Tafisi - DE, Cal

Kwame Agyeman - SS, Oregon

Fevaea'i Ahmu - DT, Washington State

Nick Ekbatani - OT, UCLA

Al Afalava - FS, Oregon State

Udeme Udofia - DE, Stanford

Gustav Rydtsedt - DT, Stanford

Emmanuel Awofadeju - LB, Stanford

Malakai Mokofisi - LB, Utah

Soli Lefiti - DE, Utah

Cody Lubojasky - LB, Houston

Jon Hameister-Ries - OG, Tulsa

Omeke Alikor - LB, Rice

Cedric Gagne-Marcoux - C, Central Florida

Tokumbo Abanikanda - LB, S. Miss

Ikaika Alama-Francis - DE, Hawaii

Solomon Elimimian - LB, Hawaii

Brad Kalilimoku - SS, Hawaii

Chindum Ndukwe - S, Notre Dame

Coming soon - THE WINNERS OF THE 2006 TONGUE TWISTER AWARDS!

The Third Saturday in October

This week is the week where my logic goes out the window. This week is when I turn off my censor when I talk about football. This week is the week where I want everything Alabama, crimson, and bear related to die slow, painful deaths, preferably in public quarters where families watch. It's the Third Fucking Saturday in October, and my alma mater, the Tennessee Volunteers battle (or kill) the spineless, bitching, crying, diaper-pooping Alabama Crimson Tide.

Honestly, though, I don't HATE Alabama's players personally. I hate them because they play for Bammer. I DO hate Bammer fans, also known as brainless douches. (See, the censor is off for Alabama week) Bammer fans are a completely different breed ... literally. Bammer fans are USUALLY a cross between a cousin's mother's brother and a sheep or mule (depending if it's dark outside when they exit the outhouse). Bammer fans think Alabama has more National Titles than their fans have teeth ... combined. Bammer fans THINK Simeon Castille and Ramzee Robinson are the best pair of corners in the SEC!

Dave Ungerer REALLY likes his corners.

See, Bammer fans have some strange quirks, NAY, strange mental handicaps. They think a man who has been dead for 23 years still coaches their team. Paul "Bear" Bryant, who I think was a GREAT coach and a GREAT man, apparently, is calling plays from the coffin.

Great call on 4th down, Coach!

Bammer fans, I hate you. You make up national titles, you now can only hire coaches named Mike, and you tried to make fun of US for our 5-6 season AFTER you went 3-8 in 2000 and 4-9 in 2003. Do you realize we had the SAME amount of wins in 2004 as your Crimson Tide had in 2003 and 2004 ... COMBINED?! Yeah, get a reality check.

Bammer fans, I hate you. I hate you more than I hate Gaytors, more than I hate Munson and his hobnailed dawgs. I hate you with every fiber of my being. Sometimes, when I'm feeling bored, I draw a picture of Bear Bryant's face and then I defecate all over it. Just for fun. Just because I hate bammers.

Bammer fans, I hate you. I hate you MOST OF ALL because you're too fucking stupid to know that when you got put on probation, IT WAS YOUR FAULT. Do you blame the poor single mother who calls the cops when her home is broken into? Do you blame the passer-by who called the fire department when a building is on fire? NO! But you blame Phillip Fulmer for calling the NCAA on your bullshit. You cheated, plain and simple. Yet, instead of blaming the very institution who committed the crime, you continue to worship the tainted, crimson altar you hold your program on. You blame the messenger. THAT is why I hate Bammers. That, as well as this:

Go fuck yourself, idiot.


(We will return to your normal rants with less vulgarity and less bias after Saturday. Apologies to those who hate foul language.)

Players of the Last Week You Haven't Heard of

We've all heard about Troy Smith, Mario Manningham, Erik Ainge, Garrett Wolfe, etc etc etc. Each week, I think I'd like to point out some very productive players who won't garner facetime on ESPN, FSN, houserockbuilt, and others. :)

• Bryan Cupito - Minnesota QB: Against Penn State, Cupito completed 25 of 36 passes for 347 yards and 2 TDs against an athletic PSU defense. With the Gophers unable to run the ball consistently, Cupito took the offense on his shoulders and carried the team to a very close loss. And Gopher fans, please quit sobbing about the bad call in OT ... you were lucky to get that far.
• La-Rod Stephens-Howling - Pittsburgh RB: Jesus H. Christ Almighty! I rejoice for your performance, but damn your name all to Hell. If I ever mention you again, La-Rod, you will be known as LaRSH ... yes, that's easier. LaRSH's previous season high in 2006 was 66 yards against the famous Citadel defense. Against the Orange of Syracuse, he busted out for 221 yards on 27 carries. One was 70 yards, but even 151 on 26 is incredible. Good job last week LaRSH.
• P.J. Hill - Wisconsin RB: Another 200+ performance from an unknown stud RB. Hill had actually shown a lot of skills earlier this season, rushing for over 100 in 4 of 5 games. But against Northwestern, he did whatever he wanted. 35 carries, 249 yards, and a touch. He's a big boy, too, but he's short. 5'11" and 242 yards. During his long run, he was caught from behind (because he's big and slow for a RB), but the defender looked like a lamb hitting the hood of a car.
  
• Earl Bennett - Vanderbilt WR: One of my favorite unknown players in the SEC. Bennett had 876 yards receiving last season ... as a freshman(!) ... in the SEC (!!!). Against Ole Miss this past weekend, he had 10 catches for 179 yards. ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY NINE YARDS! Plus, he told this guy to talk to the hand ...

This will become a weekly update and will probably become more streamlined. So, for the 0 of you who frequent this blog, stick with it.

Thoughts at Random Times

The lovefest in Gainesville for Tim Tebow (who will from here on out be known as T_T) is getting a littttttle nuts. Here's a kid who, for the most part, has been equivalent to an NFL 3rd down back ... but in college. Yeah yeah yeah, he threw 2 TD passes against LSU last weekend, but only 1 was REAL. That pansy ass jump pass was a little too dainty for me to consider a real college football touchdown. I would like to add that I think he do well in Urban Cryer's system in years to come, but right now, the obsession is scary.

Yes, this is a fark of Tim Tebow with a cape ... as if he were Superman ... or SuperTim or Super T_T. Maybe this was after his 10th three-yard run of the season.

Texas is widely ranked ahead of Tennessee, which is okay if only people like Verne Lundquist, Tim Brando, and other talking heads vote. However, there are so-called experts who rank Texas ahead of the real UT. Why? Texas beat Oklahoma .............. Tennessee has beaten Cal and Georgia. Eh, I guess you can't expect fair and knowledgable analysis from experts anymore. Maybe they felt sorry for Texas because Bevo is gone ...

Nobody will truly miss you, Bevo. Except maybe this other guy bull behind you ...

Gross.



It'd be awesome if that beer was the kid's ...