XPOST: Rich Brooks Capsizes

From CFB Authority:

This morning, WHAS Channel 11 out of Louisville, reported breaking news that a boat capsized, and one of the passengers was University of Kentucky head football coach Rich Brooks. The article also states that Brooks is fine and will be out on the river, fishing, again - even though fishing is bullshit.

We have an exclusive photo of Brooks after the boat capsized, when he attempted to swim to shore.

APP Breakdown: The SEC

I have finished the SEC analysis for Adjusted Performance Percentage. Keep in mind that a score of 100 means 100%, or that team performed on par with what their opponents allowed. Anything higher means they excelled, but anything lower means they underperformed. We'll start with Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. LSU 116.1
2. Kentucky 113.9
3. Arkansas 111.1
4. Florida 104.0
5. Alabama 103.7
6. Vanderbilt 102.9
7. South Carolina 100.7
8. Georgia 97.9
9. Tennessee 97.5
10. Auburn 91.0
11. Mississippi State 83.8
12. Mississippi 76.1

I think the two biggest surprises we see here are that Alabama was 5th in the conference on offense, while Tennessee was a dismal 9th! A lot of fans point to David Cutcliffe's return as the reason Tennessee went from 5-6 to 9-3, but during SEC play, Tennessee didn't play as well as we all thought.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

Not surprising - Arkansas not only racked up a lot of yards on the ground, but scored a 164.9 for their ROAPP. Wow! Was it due to Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, or the 3 monster offensive linemen who just graduated? We'll find out in 6 months.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

Again, no surprise here. Tennessee's terrible run blocking and inconsistent tailback play created a 64.5 ROAPP, meaning Tennessee performed 35.5% below what their opponents were allowing. Awful.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

Did you see this coming? Surely you had to, as they passed for 2,178 yards in the SEC, but a mere 178 more yards than LSU. What am I getting at? Kentucky scored a 133.7 in POAPP, while LSU and Tennessee scored 118.2 and 118.3, respectively. That's a 15.5% difference! Kentucky's pass offense wasn't just better than everybody else in the SEC, it was miles ahead! Oh, and they return every important skill position player on offense. Go ahead, say they won't make a bowl again.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

The arrival and play of Yaw Yaw Yaw Brent Schaeffaw (Brent Schaeffer for those who don't know Orgeron-ese) was nothing short of a nightmare. Let me put it this way, Tennessee fans: the Rebels' pass offense was WORSE than Tennessee rush offense, if you can believe it. A wretched 63.5POAPP is more than 12% worse than the Razorbacks' score. Ouch.

Next, I did the same analysis for the defenses in the SEC. There are a few changes when you compare it yards allowed. Here is Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. LSU 121.3
2. Florida 112.1
3. Georgia 109.6
4. Alabama 106.1
5. Auburn 104.7
6. Arkansas 103.0
7. Mississippi State 102.7
8. Tennessee 102.4
9. South Carolina 98.9
10. Mississippi 94.9
11. Vanderbilt 90.0
12. Kentucky 72.9

What stands out? Alabama at #4 is the biggest surprise. Tennessee at #8 is actually better than I expected. Not in terms of SEC rank, but in terms ofTDAPP score. They actually performed 2.4% better on defense than what their opponents' offenses were used to. The 4 teams to be in the bottom of bothTOAPP and TDAPP are Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

The Gators had 4 or 5 NFL draft picks on the defensive line in 2006, with 3 future picks at linebacker behind them. Only four teams had better than a 100 score inRDAPP: Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Alabama. Of those 4, the first 3 had amazing RDAPP scores - yes, Miss State was amazing in rush defense (134.9).

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Kentucky couldn't stop anyone who wanted to rush the ball last season. Their RDAPP was 72.1, which means that they not only didn't stuff the run well, but they also played teams with very good running offenses. They'll need to get tougher in the trenches to have a chance in the SEC East.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

The Tigers had studs all across the line last season, the year AFTER they lost 3 starters to the NFL draft. Their passing opponents were all over the board in terms ofPOAPP, so it just goes to show that the Tigers played extremely well when teams had to pass.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

Deja vu? Kentucky's pass defense was a smidgen better than their rush defense, but still horrid. A 73.4 PDAPP is 15% worse than their closest competition for absolutely blowing coverage. Their entire defense was a joke, and without any improvement, they'll finish 6-6 next season. If you gave Kentucky a new defense, say just Ole Miss (94.9TDAPP), Kentucky would have fought Florida for the SEC East Division Title. I'm not joking.

Lastly, I wanted to see who the best overall team in the SEC was, statistically. I added each team's TOAPP with their TDAPP to create Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. LSU 118.7
2. Florida 108.1
3. Arkansas 107.1
4. Alabama 104.9
5. Georgia 103.8
6. Tennessee 100.0
7. South Carolina 99.8
8. Auburn 97.9
9. Vanderbilt 96.5
10. Kentucky 93.4
11. Mississippi State 93.3
12. Mississippi 85.0

Again, how do we use this for preseason predictions? Look at Alabama - 4th best team in the SEC, but they went 6-6. Expect a big jump in wins, especially when you consider their -2 CGVR. Couple that with new head coach Nick Saban and a boatload of returning talent and you've got a potential surprise SEC West Champion. Georgia is another team I expect to win more games next year. They lose a back-up running back to the draft and a few, key defensive players, but the core of both sides of the ball will be back and stacked. These statistics imply that Kentucky should take a step back next season, but they lose little to the draft, so I'm a little confused on their progress right now.

In the end, these stats don't win games, but they can absolutely give us ideas into who we can expect to show up in 2007. As for Tennessee, I expect the same old, same old.

2006 Kentucky Preview

The Good

Their colors are cool? They used to score a lot? Forgive me, but it's a little difficult to find many things in Kentucky's program to really get pumped up about. They were pummeled by every good SEC team they played, and got lit up on defense by Idaho State. Then again, this is 2006, a season of hope for all men, women, and Kentucky football fans (can they be classified as anything other than an endangered species?).

The Wildcats have this one guy, you probably haven't heard too much about him, but he's very good. If he played at Florida, Notre Dame, or even Michigan State, he'd be a national talent with future Heisman potential. He's Kentucky's "Little Man," but nothing about him involves Shawn or Marlon Wayans. In 2005, Rafael Little set Kentucky's single season all-purpose yards record, breaking the old mark set by Derek Abney. Little rushed for 1,045 yards (5.3 ypc), caught 46 passes for 449 yards, scored 9 touchdowns, and had 355 yards in punt returns (16.9 average!). Go ahead, get out the calculator. Wait, I'll tell you: 1,982. 1,982 all purpose yards. Surely, with those numbers, he'd merit 1st Team All SEC, right? Bzzt, wrong! He was named 2nd Team All SEC, behind Arkansas's Darren McFadden and Auburn's Kenny Irons. Injustice? Maybe, but why do Irons, McFadden, Darby, et al., get more publicity than Little? He's at Kentucky! Oh, and he was only a sophomore. His junior year will probably lead to more carries and yards on the ground, but his receptions might drop, especially if the wideouts can stay healthy. Even when Little take a breather, the Wildcats just plug in SO Tony Dixon, who runs 4.41 40 yard dash. The Wildcats will depend heavily on the ground attack this season, which could open up the field for Andre Woodson at quarterback.

But wait, there's more! Along with Little in the backfield, Kentucky's offensive line should improve greatly in 2006. They have six returning "big uglies" with major starting experience. They have four seniors penciled in to start, with a 5th coming off the bench. Senior C Matt McCuthchan could very well end up in the NFL after his graduation, and Sophomore LT Aaron Miller has had great success in his single year in Lexington. The leadership on the line should control this offense, and don't expect them to have too many dumb penalties. With this very experienced line and Rafael Little continuing to do his thing, Kentucky, all of a sudden, has a potent attack.

Surprisingly, Kentucky actually has THREE areas of promise for 2006. Their putrid, rancid defense gave up 34 points a game last season, including 39 against an even more awful Indiana team. The lone twinkle of hope is the linebacking crew, which returns their main 3 starters. Top tackler Wesley Woodyard had a great campaign, and could put up even bigger numbers (100 tkl, 2 sacks, 5 tfl, 5 pbu, 1 int). MLB Braxton Kelley is coming off an injury in his freshman year and was limited to 44 tackles last season. JR OLB Joe Schuler could very well start the season backing up FR Micah Johnson, but both of these players will make impacts on the defensive side of the ball. This unit will need to set the tempo early in the season to bring confidence to a terrible defense.

The Bad

Everything else! Well, almost everything, because the defensive backfield was pitiful last year. Kentucky has some major question marks at offensive skill positions. JR QB Andre Woodson played so inconsistent, even the Tennessee offense was overheard laughing. He had solid completion numbers, but he struggled throwing touchdown passes. Getting into the endzone is obviously the most important thing in college football, so he needs to improve there. If he can consistently keep the possessions going for Kentucky, the offense will greatly improve on their 21.7 ppg. Backup Curtis Pulley was also diagnosed with "performus inconsistus," which I think is some fancy doctor mumbo jumbo for being unpredictable.

Kentucky's wideouts should improve this season, but they still are a liability until they can prove otherwise. Little led the Cats in receptions and yards last season, which should never be the case. JR WR Keenan Burton was chronically injured last season and caught 24 balls. If he can stay healthy, he could be a very solid threat at one slot. The Cats typically run a 3 wide receiver set, and the other two slots will be filled by inexperienced juniors. Steve Johnson is a JUCO transfer and needs to learn the playbook, while John Logan is coming off an injury. They both have the potential to be solid and put up some nice numbers. Woodson and the rest of the O will need them to step up.

The defensive line played like a group of middle school boys getting into a fight. They pushed and shoved, but nothing ever came of it. They lose their two best DL who produced an eye-popping 4 sacks combined last season. The line can only improve, right? They better hope so. The Cats' D produced only 16 sacks, which is less than Baylor, Duke, Stanford, Washington, and probably other bad teams. They desperately need to improve the pressure on opposing passers to have any chance of staying close against the top tier SEC teams. Opponents rushing for a whopping 4.9 yards per carry against the 2005 defensive line, and their lack of pressure contributed to the 243 passing ypg they gave up (including 291 to IDAHO STATE). This unit has some talent, but needs to play to the top of their game to help this team.

The Ugly

How would you feel about a defensive backfield that gave up 243 passing yards per game, intercepted only 4 passes, and lost their two best players? I feel pretty sorry for them, and I hope they have some miracle water in Lexington to help these gentlemen. SR CB Bo Smith returns, and he looks like the leader of the unit. He had 63 tackles, which seems like a ton for a corner. JR FS Roger Williams had a solid 2005 in terms of tackles, but nobody on the roster seems like a lockdown kind of player. They will sorely miss Muhammad Abdullah and Antoine Huffman, so much so that they may allow 260+ yards per game. If this unit doesn't drastically improve, 2006 could be very very daunting for Rich Brooks.

The Schedule

Sep. 2 - @ Louisville (L)
Sep. 9 - Texas State (W)
Sep. 16 - Mississippi (L)
Sep. 23 - @ Florida (L)
Sep. 30 - Central Michigan (W)
Oct. 7 - South Carolina (L)
Oct. 14 - @ LSU (L)
Oct. 28 - @ Mississippi State (L)
Nov. 4 - Georgia (L)
Nov. 11 - Vanderbilt (W)
Nov. 18 - Louisiana-Monroe (W)
Nov. 25 - @ Tennessee (L)

The Best Case Scenario

Kentucky has a slew of toss-up games that will decide their fate this season. Mississippi, Central Michigan, Mississippi State, and South Carolina are all games that should be pretty close and could go either way. "Central Michigan," you ask? Yes, Kentucky is 4-0 all time against the Chippewas, but they haven't played in years (the average margin of victory was only 9.5 ppg). Plus, Ohio beat the Cats in Lexington in 2004. I think Kentucky can beat the two Mississippi schools (who knows if they will?) and CMU. I have a hard hard time finding a victory against Spurrier and the Gamecocks, but the talent gap between the two teams isn't that huge. If Kentucky goes 3-1 in these 4 key games, they should end up 6-6 and bowl eligible. Don't expect them to beat Louisville, Florida, LSU, Georgia, or Tennessee. They have cakewalks against Texas State and ULM.

The Worst Case Scenario

All four of the toss-up games could slip away from them, and even Vandy could, in many imaginations, could pick them off. A 2-9 season would be terribly disappointing, and would end the Rich Brooks tenure in Lexington. The Cats have a ton of questions on the squad, and Brooks has yet to prove himself in the SEC. They haven't gone winless in SEC play this century, but there is a small, tiny chance it happens now.

The Wrap-Up

Kentucky should be greatly improved on the field and in the win column this season. They have experience (16 starters returning) and a more favorable schedule than 2005. Can they scare some teams? Sure! They've covered against Florida the last 4 seasons, but against huge spreads. Before their bye week (8-3 against the spread on these weeks), they get LSU, so watch for a close one here. Besides those 2 sneak attacks, the Cats probably won't come close to any huge upsets. I actually predict Kentucky to underperform this season and finish 4-8 (1-7), and we'll see the end of Rich Brooks on a SEC sideline.